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Ice Age question for Dana

post #1 of 14
Thread Starter 

I was looking thru an article on Wikipedia about Ice Age.  This graph appeared interesting especially during 20,000 ago - present.  It appears there is a natural cycle of ice ages based on core samples taken.  If I'm reading this right we should already be heading down another major ice age.  But, instead the average temperature been relatively holding constant since 20,000 years ago.  Since the human population exploded 20,000 years ago, can human invention be the cause of counteracting the natural ice age cycle?  Or is there more to this?  Dana need your help! :)



 


Edited by seattlite - 12/7/09 at 1:52pm
post #2 of 14
Yeah there's a theory that human activity may have extended the current interglacial period.  We had a discussion about this subject a while back here.
post #3 of 14
 At a glance it seems more like something that popped up every 100,000 years or so - the chart shows 5 spikes. 
post #4 of 14
An alternative explanation is just that the shape of earth's orbit varies on a longer timescale. Now it is more circular, so the other orbital variations that trigger ice ages were not able to have as strong of an effect this time around.

Of course it's possible that some combination of the two are responsible.
post #5 of 14
Thread Starter 
 Nice, thanks Dana.  I'll take a look at the links.  Wondering what the consequences will be if we continue to interfere with the natural ice age cycles.  If we are suppose to head down another major ice age, will more CO2 be needed in the future to keep the temperature constant?
post #6 of 14
Thread Starter 
Thanks Dawei, kind of hard to tell from the graph between 10,000 and 20,000.  How does the earth's more circular orbit account for the relationship between CO2 levels and the temperature?
post #7 of 14
Dana said, quote:
Yeah there's a theory that human activity may have extended the current interglacial period.

This is indeed an interesting theory, AIP, anthropogenic interglacial period. Only a little trouble is that there might be no really any regular cycles, mostly a wide-band noise, such that any shape of signal could be natural. A scientist from MIT has done a scientific analysis of many proxy data, untuned and tuned to Milankovitch forcing. Here is his conclusion, peer reviewed and published in a reputable journal:


"A number of records commonly described as showing control of climate change by Milankovitch insolation forcing are reexamined. The fraction of the record variance attributable to orbital changes never exceeds 20%. In no case, including a tuned core, do these forcing bands explain the overall behavior of the records. At zero order, all records are consistent with stochastic models of varying complexity with a small superimposed Milankovitch response, mainly in the obliquity band. Evidence cited to support the hypothesis that the 100 Ka glacial/interglacial cycles are controlled by the quasi-periodic insolation forcing is likely indistinguishable from chance..."

So, chances are that this is all a chance.Certainly it is quite weak to suggest that 2-3 million Neolithic people could do more damage to nature that 30 million bisons and 30 million elephants roaming the Earth 15000 years ago.
post #8 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlite View Post

If we are suppose to head down another major ice age, will more CO2 be needed in the future to keep the temperature constant?

We're actually not due for another ice age for at least 23,000 years.  More recent studies have put it at closer to 50,000 years.
post #9 of 14
Originally Posted by seattlite View Post
How does the earth's more circular orbit account for the relationship between CO2 levels and the temperature?

CO2 and temperature are usually pretty tightly correlated (as you can see in your graph). If some natural event causes the planet to warm then you always expect CO2 levels to start rising just a short time after.
post #10 of 14
Thread Starter 

I'm sure it is difficult to pinpoint the exact moment when another ice age will happen.  What were the reasons from the scientists that we are not expecting another ice age for at least 23,000 years?  From the graph, it seems like 2 degrees seems like the threshold.  The spikes appears pretty acute, so change would appear to be pretty drastic. 

 

If agriculture started approximately 10,000 ago, how trees were cut down and how many domesticated animals were raised during those times?  If this has been a factor and helped hold the temperature, it seems logical that other animals were benefit from the constant warm temperature and multiply and contribute to the CO2 level.  Too bad we don't a time machine.  :)

Pretty interesting article from NOAA on climate, ice layer and agriculture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/10k.html

post #11 of 14
Thread Starter 
Is CO2 known to shield or insulate the planet from the sun during the down slope of an ice age?  If so, it is right to assume as the CO2 level goes down enough to where it can't insulate the planet from the sun rays, the planet will warm up again.  If a large percentage of CO2 is created by living organisms and as the planet starts to warm up and organisms starts to multiple, is it right to assume that this is the cause for the CO2 lag with the temperature?

Sorry for the all the questions.  Trying to get a better understanding of climate change.
post #12 of 14
If a large percentage of CO2 is created by living organisms and as the planet starts to warm up and organisms starts to multiple, is it right to assume that this is the cause for the CO2 lag with the temperature?

 

The rise in CO2 is mainly because of warming oceans. As a solution warms, less dissolved gas can be held within it. This is why you see small bubbles rising in a pot before you reach boiling temperature: it is not water vapor, it is air that was dissolved in the water being forced out.


The oceans hold huge amounts of CO2, much more than what's contained in the atmosphere, so even a small temperature change can lead to a significant change in atmospheric concentrations.

Originally Posted by seattlite View Post
Is CO2 known to shield or insulate the planet from the sun during the down slope of an ice age?  If so, it is right to assume as the CO2 level goes down enough to where it can't insulate the planet from the sun rays, the planet will warm up again.

 

CO2 always works to keep the planet warmer than it otherwise would be.

Try thinking of it like this: imagine you're starting at equilibrium, with CO2 levels constant and the orbital tilt that triggers ice ages constant as well. Assuming that these are the only two factors, you'd expect temperatures to stay constant, right?


Now imagine that the orbital tilt changes, which has the effect of making the planet cool slightly. This means more CO2 can be absorbed by the oceans, and so atmospheric concentrations go down. This will then also have the effect of lowering temperatures, and so the decline in CO2 acts to reinforce the cooling signal from the orbital variations. Declining CO2 levels are thus acting as a 'feedback' just as rising CO2 levels did when the orbital cycles were warming us out of the ice age.
post #13 of 14
Thread Starter 

I think I see your point.  So, basically the earth is wobbling around the sun and more tilt towards or away from the sun means hotter or colder seasons?  How often does the tilt of planet change from one extreme to the other (the ones that theoretically should trigger a major ice age, not the basic four seasons)?

post #14 of 14
good pics of milankovitch cycles here;
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
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