Green Options › Forums › Climate Change › Science › 'No Sun Link' to global warming - again
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

'No Sun Link' to global warming - again

post #1 of 3
Thread Starter 

There have been numerous studies showing that the recent global warming has not been due to the Sun.  As geophysicist Ray Pierrehumbert at RealClimate put it:

"That's a coffin with so many nails in it already that the hard part is finding a place to hammer in a new one."

 

Nevertheless, there is still a theory that the Sun has indirectly caused the recent warming by influencing galactic cosmic rays.

 

The crux of the theory (put forth by Henrik Svensmark) is that the Sun's magnetic field deflects galactic cosmic rays, which theoretically can seed clouds.  Thus the stronger the Sun's magnetic field, the fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth, the fewer clouds form, and the less Sunlight is reflected by cloudcover (a.k.a. decreased Earth's albedo).

 

The theory has numerous fundamental flaws, but has not been 100% disproven (unlike the theory that the Sun is directly responsible for the recent global warming).  However, a new study has put even more doubt in the likelihood of this theory.

 

Here is an article about the study, and the scientific paper itself.  Some excerpts from the article:

 

"The idea is that variations in solar activity affect cosmic ray intensity.

But Lancaster University scientists found there has been no significant link between them in the last 20 years...the UK team explain that they used three different ways to search for a correlation, and found virtually none.

{...}

Over the course of one of the Sun's natural 11-year cycles, there was a weak correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover - but cosmic ray variability could at the very most explain only a quarter of the changes in cloudiness.

{...}

Dr Harrison's...research, looking at the UK only, has also suggested that cosmic rays make only a very weak contribution to cloud formation."

 

So anyway, I thought that was pretty interesting.

post #2 of 3

a new study i read today seems to cast even more doubt on the link,

 

Cosmic Rays Do Not Explain Global Warming, Study Finds

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081217075138.htm

 

i also found this resource, which looks like a useful summary;

 

Solar activity and climate change

lead author Rasmus Benestad

the encyclopedia of earth

www.eoearth.org/article/Solar_activity_and_climate_change

 

 the author's name sounds farmiliar.

 


Edited by gerda - Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:53:59 GMT
post #3 of 3
Thread Starter 

Hehe yeah, Benestad is one of the contributors to RealClimate (which you can review on Huddler by clicking that link, by the way!).

 

I mentioned this study in my Climate Change Causes Wiki.  The scientists concluded "no response to variations in cosmic rays...was found in marine low clouds in remote regions."  Actually, the BBC reported on this study back in April, but that was before it had been peer-reviewed I believe (which is why there's now a new story).

 

To me the GCR theory is basically looking dead (for a summary of the theory, see the Climate Change Causes Wiki).  There's been no long-term trend in cosmic ray flux on Earth, and there appears to be little relationship between cosmic rays and cloud formation anyway.  And there's little evidence of a long-term trend in cloudcover.  Basically every aspect of this theory has been undermined.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Science
Green Options › Forums › Climate Change › Science › 'No Sun Link' to global warming - again