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Spencer's mystery marker

post #1 of 2
Thread Starter 
Interesting post from Spencer today.

What I find surprising is that he's acknowledging that if he is right, we can expect a 2 C warming for a doubling of CO2. He also acknowledges that this prediction is based on only 9 years of data, and so the real feedback may be significantly different (higher if the satellites are to agree with climate models).

Am I reading this right? Spencer went from saying we will have a completley negative feedback, to saying that feedbacks may cause the system to warm twice as much as we would expect from 2x CO2 alone. Is he teetering on the edge of being called an 'alarmist'? 
post #2 of 2
Yeah that's basically what he's saying.  I mean he's still slightly below the lower end of the IPCC climate sensitivity values, so he's not quite giving up his 'skeptic' position, but it is a pretty big change.  He'd previously argued that the climate sensitivity was miniscule in comparison.

We'll see how this hashes out, because he's only working on 9 years worth of data and revealing very few details at this point.  But it would be a pretty big change in Spencer's tune.
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