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Climate Sensitivity Wiki

post #1 of 5
9/12/09 at 12:34pm
Thread Starter 
I just finished drafting up a climate sensitivity wiki, which given all the uncertainties and studies and such pertaining to the subject, wasn't an easy task.  So I'd appreciate it if people with some knowledge on the subject could take a look, and feel free to edit it as you see fit, as is the purpose of wikis!
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post #2 of 5
9/12/09 at 12:44pm
Well done and interesting Dana!  Thanks for the invitation however I am just going to be an avid reader.

If I started trying to correct your wonderful work I would just be showing what a dunce I am!

Hopefuly there are a few people in the world who I still have fooled.

 
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post #3 of 5
8/18/10 at 9:14pm
Thread Starter 

I updated the wiki a few times now.  Most recently I added a revisiting of James Hansen's 1988 global warming projections, which just so happen to yield a climate sensitivity of 3°C for a doubling of CO2.  It's quite fascinating how all these different types of studies seem to converge on that 3°C climate sensitivity value.  Makes you think that maybe they're onto something!

 

As always, comments are welcome.

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post #4 of 5
8/19/10 at 6:45pm

What about the possibility that he was only off on the rate of warming, not the final sensitivity? The 4.2 C for 2x CO2 is an equilibrium value isn't it? Maybe the 0.26 C / decade was an overestimate but only because the real world responded more slowly than he predicted, but may still reach the same 4.2 C equilibrium.


And maybe I'm dumb, but I had some trouble with your wording in saying "40% lower". I read it more like you would read a sales advertisement, like "40% off" which would mean 4.2 - (0.4*4.2) = 2.52. I understand now that you meant (3.0) x (1.40) = 4.2, but it took me a while to figure that out.

 

Assuming I'm not the last to have trouble here, it might be more straightforward to switch it to something like:

 

"Since 0.18 C is 69.2% of 0.26 C, we can also assume that climate sensitivity will be 69.2% of 4.2 C, or approximately 2.9 C."

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post #5 of 5
8/19/10 at 8:02pm
Thread Starter 

Okay, I'll try to reword it.

 

It might be worth clarifying that 3°C is the short-term climate sensitivity, which would address your first point.  I suppose it's possible that Hansen didn't correctly account for the thermal inertia of the system, which would change the value a bit.

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