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Cycles don't drive trends: Modeling study on sunspots and rainfall

post #1 of 3
Thread Starter 
Nature news story about a Science article:

http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090827/full/news.2009.869.html

Sunspots stir oceans

Variations in the Sun's brightness may have a big role in Pacific precipitation.

 

Computer simulations are showing how tiny variations in the Sun's brightness can have a big influence on weather above the Pacific Ocean.  The simulations match observations that show precipitation in the eastern Pacific varies with the Sun's brightness over an 11-year cycle. However, the model does not indicate a relationship between solar activity and the rise in global temperature over the past century.


"This is not a global warming thing," says Gerald Meehl, a modeller at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and first author of the study. "But it does indicate that the Sun has a measurable impact on Earth's climate." The research is published this week in the journal Science1.



Link to article in science


Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing

Gerald A. Meehl,1,*Julie M. Arblaster,1,2Katja Matthes,3,4Fabrizio Sassi,5Harry van Loon1,6

 

One of the mysteries regarding Earth’s climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

(full text available on request)
post #2 of 3
Interesting. I'll read the full text tomorrow.

Do they mention anything about a possible influence of sunspots on PDO and ENSO? 
post #3 of 3
You might also like this...


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/full/nature05072.html

Quote:
Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are caused by changing dark (sunspot) and bright structures on the solar disk during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years. In this Review, we show that detailed analysis of these small output variations has greatly advanced our understanding of solar luminosity change, and this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century. Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be ruled out. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present. 
I have the full paper if anyone wants it, but I think I'd have to email it or something....
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