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What's going on with the satellite temperature data?

post #1 of 12
7/15/09 at 1:05pm
Thread Starter 
Apparently both UAH and RSS (satellite global temperature datasets) are showing surprisingly cool temperatures.  RSS has a decrease in temps over 4 of the last 5 months, and similarly UAH for 4 consecutive months.

But over that period, ENSO has transitioned from a moderate La Nina to neutral conditions, and now even an El Nino (although that won't have been reflected in the temperature data yet).  So I would expect an increase in global temperatures over that period.  And indeed that's what GISS and NCDC show (Hadley has so far been pretty steady).

What really confuses me is that normally the satellites are more sensitive to changes in ENSO.  For example, they showed significantly higher temperatures in 1998 than the surface stations.



So why are they now not reflecting the ENSO changes?  Anybody got any ideas?
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post #2 of 12
7/15/09 at 1:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dana1981 View Post

Apparently both UAH and RSS (satellite global temperature datasets) are showing surprisingly cool temperatures.  RSS has a decrease in temps over 4 of the last 5 months, and similarly UAH for 4 consecutive months.

But over that period, ENSO has transitioned from a moderate La Nina to neutral conditions, and now even an El Nino (although that won't have been reflected in the temperature data yet).  So I would expect an increase in global temperatures over that period.  And indeed that's what GISS and NCDC show (Hadley has so far been pretty steady).

What really confuses me is that normally the satellites are more sensitive to changes in ENSO.  For example, they showed significantly higher temperatures in 1998 than the surface stations.



So why are they now not reflecting the ENSO changes?  Anybody got any ideas?

Wait 6 months. 
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post #3 of 12
7/15/09 at 1:52pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcnp58 View Post

Wait 6 months. 
 

Is there really that much of a delay between surface and satellite measurements when it comes to ENSO changes?  From what I've seen in surface data, it only looks like about a 2 month delay.
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post #4 of 12
7/15/09 at 2:01pm
Thread Starter 
In comparing the UAH data to the GISS data, the 1997/98 El Nino is apparent maybe 2-3 months later in UAH.  So maybe I just need to be a little more patient, but I'm still surprised the satellite temps aren't higher right now.
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post #5 of 12
7/15/09 at 2:34pm
Wild guess, but don't satellites mostly just reflect atmospheric temps and not sea surface temp? The SST response to ENSO would obviously be instant, and that should cause an immediate rise in combined land-ocean anomalies like GISS...

Besides it looks like for both May and June, Antarctica was mostly responsible for the high global anomalies. If I remember right, satellites don't measure temps at the most extreme lattitudes.
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post #6 of 12
7/15/09 at 2:39pm
Thread Starter 
Yeah I would expect there to be some lag between surface and lower troposphere temperature changes, but I wouldn't expect it to be 4+ months.  But hey, maybe my expectations are unrealistic.

The satellites get most of the poles.  As I recall, UAH is limited to somewhere around +/- 82°, and so should capture most of the Antarctic warming.
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post #7 of 12
7/15/09 at 4:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dana1981 View Post

Yeah I would expect there to be some lag between surface and lower troposphere temperature changes, but I wouldn't expect it to be 4+ months.  But hey, maybe my expectations are unrealistic.

The satellites get most of the poles.  As I recall, UAH is limited to somewhere around +/- 82°, and so should capture most of the Antarctic warming.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sobel0201.pdf

Figure 2.  Lag is around 4 months.  Be patient.  :-)
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post #8 of 12
7/15/09 at 4:54pm
Thread Starter 
Alright, I guess I can stand to ignore the Watts of the world for another month or two.  Then rub it in their faces when the ENSO warming is reflected in the satellites! 
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post #9 of 12
7/15/09 at 5:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dana1981 View Post

Alright, I guess I can stand to ignore the Watts of the world for another month or two.  Then rub it in their faces when the ENSO warming is reflected in the satellites! 

Revenge is a dish best served cold. 
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post #10 of 12
7/15/09 at 8:14pm
Thread Starter 
But first I'm going set us 'alarmists' up to correctly predict the increased satellite temperatures, because then we can both rub it in and gloat about our brilliant predictions at the same time.
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post #11 of 12
7/17/09 at 11:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by dana1981 View Post

But first I'm going set us 'alarmists' up to correctly predict the increased satellite temperatures, because then we can both rub it in and gloat about our brilliant predictions at the same time.

Now of course you've let them know you're cunning plan.  They'll be ready for you, pointing out it's weather, or the high temperature is only due to el Nino. 

In 50 years, when all of the really nasty effects are really being felt, the deniers will still be loudly claiming that it would have happened anyway and the planet is simply recovering from the 5 million year cool spell. 


On a semi-related note, there was an interesting article in the March 09 issue of the IEEE magazine Spectrum on electric cars and their overall energy efficiency.  I can get you the link if you can't find it online.
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post #12 of 12
7/17/09 at 2:37pm
Thread Starter 
Cool, I'll have to look for that.

Yeah I know deniers will always be deniers.  But I enjoy making correct predictions and then rubbing it in, since they love to ignorantly argue how AGW never makes any correct predictions.
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