Forecast = Hot

I asked a question on the subject here.  NASA provides some explanation on the solar cycle prediction method here.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the year goes.  It does seem possible that it will break the previous temperature record if a strong El Nino and solar cycle 24 get going.  It's off to a little bit of a slow start at 6th-warmest so far, but it's a distinct possibility.

 

Personally I root for a record-breaking year because it takes away several denier talking points (no years hotter than 1998, global warming has stopped, etc.), and it will motivate us to take more action in reducing our emissions.

It's going to be really funny when solar cycle 24 starts up, but it's still close to a minimum, we set a temperature record, and deniers say "see, it's the sun!".

Does anyone know the difference between a dynamic model and a statistical model? 

 

Dynamic models seem to be predicting more El Nino like conditions, while statistical models seem more neutral, even La Nina like. 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure5.gif

"Does anyone know the difference between a dynamic model and a statistical model? "

These links explain it pretty well:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/prediction.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

The statistical models currently predict between ENSO neutral and milder el Nino conditions than the average dynamical model.

Here is the difference between a statistical model and a dynamic model.

Let's assume the model has all the correct measurements verified by scientific study which confirmed measurements of, for example, 36-24-36 so the model is assumed to be perfect by the best scientific standards. However, once employed the model turns out to be totally unrepresentative of the qualities appreciated.

Now then, a dynamic model may not have the exact measurements the statistical model predicted as prerequisite and reliability may be in question . However, the dynamic model provides a much enhanced method of availability for first hand study.

This week's update on ENSO conditions is as follows:

Aside from the obvious implications that setting a new temperature record means the warming is continuing, it sets things up so that in 2019, if there is another brief downturn in global mean temperature, we have to hear the stupid skeptics shriek how the warming stopped in 2009. 

But then I'm always willing to recognize the silver lining in the clouds is actually the sun shining off of more clouds. 

Hah well you would think at some point they'll realize that the "global warming has stopped" argument is just stupid and move on to something like "warmer is better" or "the free market solves all problems!".  But then again, I've learned never to overestimate the power of denial.

El Nino has returned.

Wonderful.

Honestly, I wish the skeptics were right.  I do.  Climate change is going to be ghastly. 

I totally agree.  However, since they're not right, I'm rooting for 2009 to break the global temperature record just to light a fire under everyone's butt (pun intended).  It's the sort of thing that ignites public opinion, which in turn gets policymakers taking the issue more seriously.

Plus it will get deniers to shut up about the 'global cooling' myth, at least in the short-term.