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my head hurts ozone troposphere bzzzt

post #1 of 5
4/13/09 at 1:18pm
Thread Starter 

could someone explain this article in words of one or two syllables for me please? is it good or bad news??

 

Climate Change And Atmospheric Circulation Will Make For Uneven Ozone Recovery

 

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post #2 of 5
4/13/09 at 1:36pm

 

 

Quote:

...the accumulation of greenhouse gases also changes the circulation of stratospheric air masses from the tropics to the poles, NASA scientists note. In Earth's middle latitudes, that means ozone is likely to "over-recover," growing to concentrations higher than they were before the mass production of CFCs...Though the concentration of chlorine and other ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere will not return to pre-1980 levels until 2060, the ozone layer over middle latitudes recovered to pre-1980 levels by 2025.

 

{...}

 

Globally averaged ozone and Antarctic concentrations catch up by 2040, as natural atmospheric production of ozone resumes.

 

{...}

 

This recovery in the middle and polar latitudes has mixed consequences, Li noted. It might have some benefits, such as lower levels of ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface and correspondingly lower rates of skin cancer. On the other hand, it could have unintended effects, such as increasing ozone levels in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere at Earth's surface. The model also shows a continuing ozone deficit in the stratosphere over the tropics. In fact, when the model run ended at year 2100, the ozone layer over the tropics still showed no signs of recovery...the lower stratosphere over tropical and mid-southern latitudes might not return to pre-1980s levels of ozone for more than a century, if ever.

 

So it's kind of a mixed bag.  Good for the middle and polar latitudes in that more ozone means more UV protection, but as noted in bold above, there could be negative unintended effects.  For the tropics it's bad news because their ozone won't be recovering anytime soon.

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post #3 of 5
4/13/09 at 11:34pm

The article is a little more digestable if you figure out what the Brewer-Dobson circulation is.  Also, the article itself is online at:

 

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2207/2009/acp-9-2207-2009.pdf

 

and the figures in the paper make it clearer what they are talking about.

 

The take-home message for me is that nothing about the impacts of climate change will be easily predicted, and that the atmosphere-ocean system is totally coupled.  There are going to be all sorts of things like this that will pop up in the next 20 years.  Most of them will have nasty consequences.  This study, for instance, downplays the possible consequences of increased tropospheric ozone, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, and implicated in the observed amplification of the warming signal in the arctic.  So, this may be yet another positive feedback in the CO2 forcing, one that is not accounted for in models to date. 

 

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post #4 of 5
4/14/09 at 1:53am

gcnp58 -

 

I am agreed that nothing is or will be easily and accurately predicted when it comes to climate change. Unexpected observations will have lead to unexpected new areas and affects.

 

One thing I am certain of - The more people peeing in the pool the worse it becomes and we have more people and more efficient ways to pee in the pool every day.

 

Best time to work on cleaning it up - start now and continue for the next 1000 years. 

 

Years back a coworker (a doctor with Lurgi Gmbh) remarked that maybe we understood 75% of what happens in catalytic reactions reforming CH4+CO2 to H2+CO. My boss (who was one of the very top experts in the field) remarked to me that while it was nice to hear the guy say he didn't know everything he was probably being very optomistic about how much of the interacting reactions we really understood.

 

I think climate science will be no different.

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post #5 of 5
4/15/09 at 1:55pm
Thread Starter 

 

thanks people. my lobes fritzed on this one for a bit. dana, thanks for picking out the important bit for me.

 

 

Originally Posted by gcnp58 View Post

The article is a little more digestable if you figure out what the Brewer-Dobson circulation is.  Also, the article itself is online at:

 

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2207/2009/acp-9-2207-2009.pdf

 

and the figures in the paper make it clearer what they are talking about.

 

The take-home message for me is that nothing about the impacts of climate change will be easily predicted, and that the atmosphere-ocean system is totally coupled.  There are going to be all sorts of things like this that will pop up in the next 20 years.  Most of them will have nasty consequences.  This study, for instance, downplays the possible consequences of increased tropospheric  and implicated in the observed amplification of the warming signal in the arctic.  So, this may be yet another positive feedback in the CO2 forcing, one that is not accounted for in models to date. 

 


brewer dobson, check. is that the dobson who made the meter?

 

pdf; ooh piccys! its starting to make sense....

 

"ozone, which is a very potent greenhouse gas"... that was my main worry, yet another positive feedback.

 

 

oh well, probably small beer on top of what we are doing.

 

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