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Question about James Lovelock's theory

post #1 of 3
Thread Starter 

Sorry to be so negative, it's just that the papers here in Britain have been painting a steadily bleaker picture of climate change. It sounds as though scientists just keep discovering more bad news, that things are worse than previously thought, and if this trend continues things might start to look more like James Lovelock's disastrous prediction (which I've had explained to me, but not read the book).

 

So does anyone here know, if things do turn out to be as extreme as Lovelock predicts, how we're going to fare here in Cambridge, England? When will things start to go downhill? When will flooding and other issues first start to become a problem, and how long after that before society break down completely?

 

I'm doing what I can to be a part of the solution to climate change, but if the worst comes to the worst, I'd like to have a good idea of:

a) How many more years me and those I care about can expect to continue with our current, comfortable lives for.

b) What level of disaster we might be seeing and when, so that we can do our best to prepare for it.

post #2 of 3

I'm not sure about specific effects in England. I think most of the country is in a region which will receive increased rainfall, so flooding is a possibility.

However, even though most predictions made by the IPCC appear to be too conservative, we're still looking at quite a while before we begin to experience the worst effects of climate change. I think we're looking at somewhere around mid-century, depending on where you live (areas like Australia which are already in the midst of a major drought will probably experience the consequences much sooner, for example).

How many more years we live comfortably is also highly dependent on how much we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. If we succeed in reducing global GHG emissions 50+% by mid-century, we may very well avoid the worst consequences of global warming.

post #3 of 3

a) How many more years me and those I care about can expect to continue with our current, comfortable lives for.

b) What level of disaster we might be seeing and when, so that we can do our best to prepare for it.

 

my guess, about 30 to 50 years. the main problem in britain, as lovelock identifies, will be social upheaval as we are flooded (sorry if that sounds a bit national front) by refugees, from north africa and bangladesh in particular (my guess).

 

my plan is to buy land, but with other people (an ethical land co-op, hopefully leading to a retirement place in an ecovillage). there will be men with big sticks by the time i am an old lady.

 i hope this will be a bolt hole for my nieces if things really go tits up, but i think as they are both planning to be doctors they will be pretty safe as things go.

 

england; the west is a good bet, as it will probably maintain a maritime climate and see increased rainfall. the south east will be too dry and crowded. scotland and wales will be better still, not least because of the politics.

avoid anywhere 20 miles from the coast or 50m or lower.

 

transition towns have the measure of it. for many reasons; peak oil is the one they sell on, but also over-stretched supply lines and too close coupled economies leading to cascading supply failure, other material shortage,and most importantly water and food. go local. dont rely on anything that has to come from more than a horse cart distance away.

 

 

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