VW EV??

Yeah it's funny, just a month ago VW was saying EVs are the technology of the distant future but they were going to focus on diesel engines in the near-term, which they felt were sufficiently clean.  This is a rapid about-face, but it's good that they see the writing on the wall.

That would be very cool if VW comes out with an EV.  "Some kind of model should nonetheless be available by 2012, when increasingly strict carbon emissions limits set by the European Union are due to take effect."

It's great to keep seeing more (bigger) companies working to get EVs on the road.

Well, I think it is a matter of what does <real EV> mean?

In reality, EV is still very far away as the CEO says. It is because of low energy density of batteries. Unless it is dramatically improved, EV will not take place of current IC engine vehicles, and that seems to take long time.

In addition, we must realize EV itself is non-polluting, but generating electricity requires a lot of fossil oil for now. It is equally important to develop technology to decrease the use of fossil oil for existing facilities, and consider comsuming less emergy personally and commercially.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota 

 

In reality, EV is still very far away as the CEO says. It is because of low energy density of batteries. Unless it is dramatically improved, EV will not take place of current IC engine vehicles, and that seems to take long time.

 

In addition, we must realize EV itself is non-polluting, but generating electricity requires a lot of fossil oil for now. It is equally important to develop technology to decrease the use of fossil oil for existing facilities, and consider comsuming less emergy personally and commercially.

 

 

I disagree on both points.  There are a number of highway speed EVs with 100+ mile range available now or in the near future.  This meets almost every American's daily needs.  For the rare instances where we need to travel longer distances, a network of rapid charging stations will solve the problem.  A number of groups are working on this, such as Coulomb Technologies and Better Place.

Also, while it's certainly important to increase our renewable energy production, even on the current grid EVs are far greener than gas cars including hybrids, as discussed in the EV wiki.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dana1981 

 

 

 

I disagree on both points.  There are a number of highway speed EVs with 100+ mile range available now or in the near future.  This meets almost every American's daily needs.  For the rare instances where we need to travel longer distances, a network of rapid charging stations will solve the problem.  A number of groups are working on this, such as Coulomb Technologies and Better Place.

 

Also, while it's certainly important to increase our renewable energy production, even on the current grid EVs are far greener than gas cars including hybrids, as discussed in the EV wiki.

Good to hear different opinion.

Energy density is the amount of energy stored in a given system or region of space per unit volume, or per unit mass. When it comes to talk about cars, speed is only one facter of entire picture. Even it can run at 100+ mph, if it requies more infrastructure (charging station network, as you say), it turns out to be much more expensive than IC engine vehicles in total. In addition, IC engine vehicle requires few minutes for filling a tank, while EV requires much longer time to recharge.

If EV can drive at 100+ mph for 400 miles with single few minutes of charging at similar weight/ps, that is equivalent energy density to IC engine vehicle. Unfortunately, it is a reality there is still a significant distance between EV and IC engine vehicles, and that is why many groups are working on it. 

I don't understand another point you are disagreeing. I totally agree EV itself is much cleaner than IC engine vehicles. All I wanted to say was it's fuel - electrocity - still requires a lots of fossil oil to produce and the technologies to improve current fossil oil consumption is equally important. Do you disagree with these thoughts?

Edited by Mota - 3/6/2009 at 03:23 am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota 

 

Even it can run at 100+ mph, if it requies more infrastructure (charging station network, as you say), it turns out to be much more expensive than IC engine vehicles in total. In addition, IC engine vehicle requires few minutes for filling a tank, while EV requires much longer time to recharge.

 

I don't understand another point you are disagreeing. I totally agree EV itself is much cleaner than IC engine vehicles. All I wanted to say was it's fuel - electrocity - still requires a lots of fossil oil to produce and the technologies to improve current fossil oil consumption is equally important. Do you disagree with these thoughts?

 

Sure I mean even without the charging infrastructure EVs are going to be more expensive than gas cars.  That's just the nature of new technologies - they're always more expensive to begin with until the technology advances and the economies of scale come into play.  But while the technology will be more expensive for a while, there will also be electric cars which can meet most peoples' everyday needs.

As for the last point, I think we're in agreement here.  It's just that I think it's a seperate issue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dana1981 

 

 

 

Sure I mean even without the charging infrastructure EVs are going to be more expensive than gas cars.  That's just the nature of new technologies - they're always more expensive to begin with until the technology advances and the economies of scale come into play.  But while the technology will be more expensive for a while, there will also be electric cars which can meet most peoples' everyday needs.

 

As for the last point, I think we're in agreement here.  It's just that I think it's a seperate issue.

I understand and agree all what you say, and then what did you diesagree originally - I am a bit confused.

What VW CEO said means EV is still far from taking place of current IC engine vehicles. And, I said it is because of much lower energy density of batteries comparing to gasoline or diesel.

No manufacturers can afford to mass produce vehicles that are not salable. There will be almost no demand on EV until it is fully developed.

Any new technology begins with high investment and cost, and it goes down as it progresses. As EV is still at the early stage of development, it is expensive and not capable enough to replace IC engine vehicles until 80 times higher energy density batteries are developed.

I sure hope such battery will be developed sooner, but till then I am not opposing to use EVs as a minor transportation within its capabilities. I don't think there is anything conflicting to your opinion.

In addition, I believe VW CEO also meant it is equally important to further improve current IC engine, namely diesel engine, for less consumption and cleaner emission.

I have a concern that majority of investors are totally looking into new energy development, and not paying enough attention to improvement of current energy consumption. Current energy saving immediately reflects to our living, while new technology takes years to reflect. These may be two different issues, but are strongly connected in our daily living.

I guess it just depends on what you think the VW guy meant by his comment.

I disagree with this statement.  Well for starters it depends if he means just the ICE, or if this includes hybrids.  If he's talking pure gas cars then he's wrong today.  If the statement includes plug-in hybrids, it's possible that he's correct, but I still think he's far too pessimistic. 

Like I said, there are already EVs coming on the market with 100 mile per charge range, highway speed, and in the $30k range.  That's not competetive with gas cars just yet, but it's not that far off either.  And if a company like EEStor comes through with a significant technology advancement, EVs could jump ahead rapidly.

But really with technolgy available in the very near future, if we could set up a rapid recharge station network, EVs could be competetive with gas cars in less than decade.  Especially if we pass some sort of carbon tax or cap and trade system, which is inevitable.

I just think the VW guy is focused on what his company is capable of and not seeing what the rest of the industry is already producing.  VW is behind the game on electric cars, but there are a number of companies producing some really nice EVs.

I really cannot predict how long it will take battery improvement up to ICE level. Just for your information, here is a chart of energy density comparison from WIKIPEDIA.

You will naturally disagree to VW CEO, because you are looking at EV with high expectations (which we all need to have), while VW CEO is speaking very conservative, because corporate cannot be run by expectations (which caused current economical crisis, by the way).

Hybrid is very practical, but just a transitional technology under the same concept of "improvement of current energy consumption", and other hybrid than electric is also developed - like oil pressure hybrid.

There are some areas of ICE that can still be improved to further increase ICE efficiency (which is pathetic less than 30% of gasoline engine). One of them is exhaust heat conversion to energy, and BMW is working hard.

Considering all such facts, VW CEO is right at this moment. It might take two decades for EV to take place of current ICE. It could be one decade or less (I hope), but there is no technological proof for it now.... history will tell if he was right or not.

P.S. Thanks Dana1981 for your positive thoughts and opinions which we all need to have to make world greener.

Coincidentally, Wintergreen Research (which is a group with a very good track record on predicting successful companies and industries like Intel and Microsoft before they made it big) has predicted that there will be 32.7 Million Electric Cars on the road (worldwide) by 2015.  They had a really good interview on yesterday's EVCast with one of the Wintergreen folks.  They're very thorough.

Here's their report summary.

Here's the EVCast interview episode.

Also, Ford does VW better by a factor of 2.

Nissan is looking at the same timeframe.

And so on.